Synthesis of U.S. First-Quarter 2026 GDP Growth Revisions
Economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 was finalized at an annualized rate of 2.1%, following a sequence of estimates from 2.0% down to 1.6% before the final upward revision. The fluctuations were largely driven by volatility in trade deficits and private inventory levels, while consumer spending growth significantly decelerated toward the end of the quarter.
Aggregated from 8 sources · Updated 25 Aug 2026, 03:14 UTC (UTC)
Coverage Balance
8 sourcesFacts (11)
- Established
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) issued a third estimate of first-quarter 2026 GDP showing growth at an annualized rate of 2.1%.
- Established
The first-quarter GDP growth rate was previously estimated at 1.6% in a second report issued by the Commerce Department on May 28, 2026.
- Established
The final 2.1% growth rate exceeded the 2.0% advance estimate and the 0.5% growth rate recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Established
The upward revision from 1.6% to 2.1% was primarily attributed to a sharp downward revision in imports, resulting in a smaller subtraction from net exports.
- Established
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) for the first quarter were revised down to 0.4%-0.5%, the slowest pace since early 2022.
- Established
Corporate profits from current production rose by $40.4 billion in Q1 2026, a decline from the $246.9 billion growth recorded in Q4 2025.
- Established
Real gross domestic income (GDI) grew at a 0.9% rate in the first quarter, compared to 1.6% in the previous quarter.
- Established
The core personal consumption expenditures price index rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May 2026.
- Emerging
Business spending on equipment and nonresidential fixed investment increased at a rate of 10.6% in the final estimate.
- Emerging
Economists cite a war with Iran and resulting energy price surges as a primary driver for elevated inflation and pressure on household spending power.
- EmergingNiche Signal
The Survey of Professional Forecasters lowered its full-year 2026 GDP growth projection to 2.2%.